Intel Academy: Türkiye’s balanced policy vital in multipolar world

The balanced policy pursued by Ankara on a multipolar world stage is critical, the National Intelligence Academy (MIA) said in a report published earlier this month.

In its report titled “Russia’s Search for a Status in the Changing Multipolar System,” MIA analyzed Moscow’s military, economic and sociocultural moves while looking at the opportunities and risks that arise for Türkiye amid changing global balances.

Emphasizing that Türkiye’s relations with Russia are comprised of multilateral and sensitive balances, the report said: “While continuing its alliance ties with the West, NATO member Türkiye is striving to preserve cooperation with Russia in energy and trade. Although Ankara’s support for Ukraine is a source of criticism from Russia, economic and energy cooperation between the two countries continues.”

NATO member Türkiye has sought to maintain good relations with its warring Black Sea neighbors, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pitching himself as a key go-between and possible peacemaker between the two warring countries.

Ankara has provided drones for Ukraine but shied away from Western-led sanctions on Moscow. It has brokered a grain deal under the shadow of conflict and prisoner exchanges between the sides.

The report also pointed to Donald Trump taking office in the U.S. and the resulting changes in Washington’s global strategies. Trump’s criticism toward traditional allies and his suspicion of NATO may strengthen Russia’s policy of taking advantage of the divergences between Western countries, MIA said.

“Türkiye is taking cautious and strategic steps in the process to adapt to the multipolar global system,” the report said, indicating that the country’s balanced policy is vital to reinforce its global status. Moreover, it added that Türkiye’s strategic flexibility and multilateral diplomatic abilities can increase its international influence and regional leadership role.

Russia’s quest

While the U.S. is losing its position as a global hegemon and China’s rise has strengthened the fundamentals of a multipolar world order, Russia’s efforts to consolidate its place in the international system have gained pace.

Moscow, whose relations with the West have come to a breaking point with its invasion of Ukraine, is trying to strengthen its ties with the Global South through new alliances such as BRICS.

The report underlined that Russia’s strategy is faced with significant challenges. Europe has significantly decreased its dependence on Russian energy resources, which has led Moscow to turn to Asian markets. Increasing economic dependence on China, similarly, might threaten Russia’s strategic autonomy in the long run, it added.

Trade between China and Russia reached a new record high last year, official data shared by Chinese customs showed recently, reflecting strong economic ties between the countries despite Western sanctions on Moscow.

Political and economic ties between Beijing and Moscow have deepened since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, drawing extensive criticism from the U.S. and other Western nations, which have implemented tough sanctions in response.

MIA highlighted that Russia’s strategies are not limited to the military and economic spheres but also include cultural diplomacy as well as soft power.

Still, the hybrid war and media strategies pursued by Russia are limited by counter moves by the West. However, they support Russia’s efforts to increase its influence in the global discourse.

Efforts to provide an alternative narrative to the West’s hegemony are supported through media and disinformation strategies, the report continued.

The report further elaborated that the West’s economic sanctions and military limitations on Russia critically affected global trade and financial flexibility. It said that Türkiye is using this situation to its advantage through developing its energy partnerships and seeking new opportunities in trade.