Analysis: US wants to keep Russia busy with Ukraine - M5 Dergi
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Analysis: US wants to keep Russia busy with Ukraine

Abone Ol 

‘Kyiv, which receives money, weapons and strategic support from the West, can maintain the de facto situation for a long time. The result is a stalemate that will last for years, with more and more people dying every day’

After the explosion on the strategic Crimean Bridge, also called Kerch Bridge, that connects Russia with Crimea, Moscow targeted Kyiv instantly. It has threatened that harsher attacks would come. Fear is growing that Ukraine’s attack on a civilian bridge in use will pave the way for Russia to target civilians in a similar way. It’s transforming this brutal method into a legitimate tool in warfare.

More frightening, of course, is the realization of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to strike Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons. U.S. President Joe Biden said Putin isn’t kidding that he can use tactical nuclear, biological or chemical weapons because his military’s performance is severely underrated.

He said Putin’s threat threatens to bring about the biggest such risk “since the Cuban Missile Crisis.” “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” he stated. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that they take Putin’s words and threats seriously,” saying that “he is not joking.”

So, how does such a move by Putin get a response from the West?

Speaking to the German tabloid newspaper Bild, a senior NATO official said that if Putin pushes the button, a trade blockade will be imposed, putting Russia in complete isolation. According to the plan, there will be a full embargo on Russian gas and oil. This will mean that the Russian economy is completely alienated from the Western world. They will have to find buyers for their raw materials. In such a case, while Russia is expected to get closer to China and India, it is predicted that these countries may act differently due to sanctions. Nico Lange of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) who has been serving as Federal Minister of Defence Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s chief of staff since 2019, said that if Putin uses nuclear weapons, the United States could launch a cyberattack and target major communication networks such as the phone and the internet.

All officials and commentators agree that the U.S. and Western countries will not respond to Russia’s nuclear attack with nuclear weapons. However, the consequences of the embargo against Russia are obvious. They returned to Europe as energy bottlenecks and inflation. Actions such as cyberattacks and communications sabotage will also be met with the same level of retaliation from Moscow.

Therefore, for now, there does not appear to be a serious obstacle to deterring Putin. Terrorist attacks, such as Kerch Bridge, are not enough for the withdrawal from the four regions that declared autonomy by referendum, especially Crimea.

Kyiv, which receives money, weapons and strategic support from the West, can maintain the de facto situation for a long time. The result is a stalemate that will last for years, with more and more people dying every day.

So what’s the only way out for now?

The invitation of Russia to the peace table in exchange for closing the debate on Ukraine’s NATO membership. Thus, Putin, who tried hard to convince the Russian people of the NATO threat, would be deprived of a critical trump card to continue the war.

It does not seem technically and politically possible for Ukraine to become a NATO member, for many reasons such as Hungary’s possible vote.

In addition, without the NATO umbrella, the U.S. and the West can provide all kinds of military and political support to Ukraine. Nothing ties their hands for now.

When will the Kyiv administration and people willing to pay so much for an unrealizable goal understand that the Biden administration will not endanger NATO for Ukraine?

They never think, why would Russia, with its energy isolated in eastern Ukraine, bother with the U.S.? And what does the U.S. war apparatus gain from the Ukrainian people suffering for such a goal?

Abone Ol 

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